Voting for Independence

 

It is the people of Scotland who will decide to have Independence via a referendum or not. It does not matter the name of the Party leader or indeed the name of the Party or what criteria Tories tell us what's needed. It is the will of the people via our Independence MSPs that decide that in parliament. That's how democracy works. It's an independence majority that matters and we could achieve an overwhelming Independence majority.

While political Parties must promote their own Party under electoral rules the independent voter, with an understanding of the voting system in the Scottish Elections, is free from such constraints and can make this election a huge success for promoting independence in Scotland.

Vote 1 is for a constituency candidate and vote 2 is for a regional list “additional member”.

Looking at all the possible strategies there is one that stands out as one that will maximise the Independence seats while minimizing the Unionists seats based on mathematical logic rather than merely opinion.

Don’t split the first vote.

Vote SNP1.

Don’t waste the second vote

Vote Greens 2.

 

The question of why the Greens for vote 2 and not one of the other List-only, pro-indy only Parties including Alex Salmond’s new Party will be addressed below but first some other key questions:-

1.  The voting system in Scotland explained?

Your first vote is for a constituency seat and this will select an individual candidate. This is a first past the post system so only one winner for each constituency. An important point here is that your second vote will have absolutely no bearing on this vote.

Your second vote:- The important point here is that the seats won in the first votes, the constituency seats, WILL have a bearing on your second vote. Your second vote also applies to the whole region. This is a Scottish form of a type of proportional representation, a form of the D’Hondt system that selects 7 additional members in 7 stages across 8 regions. Each region contains about 9 constituencies. Here is how it works simply and precisely:-

At each stage the Parties second votes are divided by a handicap and a winner is selected at each stage. The handicap equals 1 plus the number of seats already won INCLUDING the constituency seats.

2. Why not SNP1 and 2?

A consequence of the voting system is that if one Party sweeps up the constituency seats the handicap makes it virtually impossible for that same Party to sweep up the List seats but another Party can.

 In 2016 the number of constituency seats won by the SNP was typically 8 or 9. The Greens will win zero seats and at the first stage there vote will not be divided.  This means your SNP2 vote will be divided by typically 9 or 10 at the first stage. This is why although the SNP have gained the largest majority of the List votes they gained the fewest List seats from among the main Parties.

By advocating SNP 1 and 2 for supporters of independence this MAY gain a FEW List SNP seats across the whole of Scotland.

However this is at the expense of:-

·        Making an otherwise almost certain overwhelming independence majority impossible taking into account the current number of independent voters

·        Allows Unionists to retain most of the List seats they currently have and possibly gain more.

·        Takes for granted many of the Green supporters who give their vote 1 to the SNP allowing more constituency seats to be gained for SNP and Independence.

Do we really want to forgo these certain advantages for a very small uncertain gain of a few SNP List seats.

I also really think that we will get even less SNP list seats than 2016 for three different reasons. The SNP constituency vote will likely be up. The Alba Party will take second votes from SNP supporters that from some reason feel they can’t vote Greens 2. The Greens are also rising especially among the younger voters who may choose them because of the environmental issues and so the difference between the SNP 1 and 2 votes will be greater even without SNP voters tactically voting Greens 2. This makes SNP 2 even more futile and so we are as well to go for the overwhelming Independence majority by adding tactical Green 2 votes. Don’t rely on a repeat of the 2011 election where the changes thereafter were out-with the hands of the independence voters....for example the Tories did not think the SNP would be so successful and failed to come out in the numbers they did in 2016. We can’t do anything about that but we can take most List seats off them by voting Greens 2.

3. Does this apply to every region of Scotland?

The lowest number of constituency seats won in any region was in South Scotland where 4 SNP seats were won. So the handicap there was 5. So less of an issue there and the SNP did gain List seats but they could have gained more Green seats at the expense of at least a Tory seat.

In the Highlands and Islands the SNP won 6 constituency seats and managed 1 SNP list.

The handicap in thee H&I was therefore 7. This means at the first stage every vote for the Greens was 7 times greater than every SNP list vote.

If the SNP2 votes were exchanged for Green 2 votes then 1 less SNP list seat would have allowed up to 3 more Green List seats and 2 less Unionists seats including a Tory seat.

In effect the simple solution of SNP 1 and Greens 2 is the best solution in every region.

4. Does this depend on knowing how people will vote on Election Day?

The thing about mathematics is that when principles are involved the actual numbers don’t matter as long as we can (and we can) rely on SNP gaining more constituency seats than the Greens and the Greens gaining more than a minimum threshold. We also don’t need everyone to change but the more that do the more we move towards the super overwhelming independence majority.

 

5. Why the Greens for vote 2 and not one of the other so called Pop –up Parties?

Although splitting the second vote (between other pro-Indy List only Parties) is not as drastic as splitting the first vote (because of the form of proportional representation system) it makes the second vote less effective. If one List-only Party could gain 3 List seats, then splitting the vote would reduce that to 2. If one List only Party gained a seat at the 7^th stage then again splitting that vote would lose that seat. So the more we focus on one List-only Party the better it will be. But why the Greens?

The Greens are an established Party so they are not going away. The Greens have support across all ages but an increasing number of younger voters vote for the Greens because of their environmental policies. So again whether or not you agree with these policies they are not going away so it makes sense to rally around this Party.

6. What about the argument that if everyone who voted SNP1 in 2016 also voted SNP2 we would have gained an overall majority?

It must be stated that we did win an independence majority in 2016. It is the MSPS that support independence that matter much more than the name of the Party. The voting system in Scotland with the form of proportional representation was designed to make it highly unlikely for a single Party to govern but rather a cooperation of elected MSPs that better reflect the electorate than a first past the post system.

Next it should be realised that those who voted SNP 1 in 2016 also included most of the Greens. It is absurd to think that these same Greens would then throw away their second vote on SNP2 allowing other Unionists to be elected and  for the Greens to gain no seats all for the slimmest of chances of gaining an SNP List seat.

 

So the aim of attempting to gain an SNP overall majority by not cooperating with the Greens is not necessary and at the same times puts an otherwise overwhelming independence majority in jeopardy. Working with the Greens makes the constituency seats more likely and only possibly reduces a few SNP List seats and so working with the Greens does not really damage the possibility of an overall SNP majority. We can get a possible SNP majority and a definite independence majority.

More and more independent voters are going for SNP1 and Greens 2. Go with the flow and make it a huge success.

Pat Hackett 26th March 2021